Singularity Arc Capital

Market Data Science

We build concentrated, research-driven portfolios by modeling how price discovery unfolds through market and global events.

Market-Driving Fundamentals Behavioral Dynamics Post‑Event Dynamics Macro Conviction Public Equities Options & Asymmetry

Our Mission

To compound capital responsibly by turning high-quality information into decisive action. We aim to be the rare manager that is both deeply fundamental and relentlessly data-native.

What We Do

  • Machine learning models integrating fundamentals, earnings quality, capital allocation, and competitive dynamics with systematic signals such as post-earnings drift, relative strength, and macro regime shifts.
  • Public equities, enhanced with options for both risk shaping and asymmetric opportunity.
  • Disciplined use of leverage in risk-managed trades to capture market mispricings with defined time horizons.
  • Event‑aware frameworks that explicitly model earnings cycles, macro regime shifts, and fluid market dynamics such as seasonality.

Our Edge

Cross‑Sectional Discipline

We apply consistent, comparative analysis across companies, emphasizing durable fundamentals, resilient capital structures, and systematic stress-testing against a broad panel of quantitative indicators.

Psychology Awareness

Markets are a mirror of human nature. Our edge is seeing what others look past — the truths within the noise of market data — and acting with clarity.

Leverage & Time Awareness

We exploit asymmetry through disciplined use of leverage and a constant awareness of time horizons. Every position is framed with explicit risk, defined thesis half-lives, and structured exit criteria—turning time itself into a tradable dimension of edge.

Investment Approach

1) Idea Sourcing

  • Rigorous and grounded macroeconomic analysis.
  • Awareness the market must agree for us to be right.
  • Integrated data pipelines for price dynamics, fundamentals, options, transcripts, sentiment.

2) Modeling & Validation

  • Relentless focus on the fundamentals and dynamics that truly drive markets.
  • Aligned with macroeconomic theses and calibrated to time horizon.
  • Respecting the market in the short run, validating conviction in the long run.

3) Portfolio Construction

  • Sizing from expected return and error bars
  • Concentrated equity positions with targeted hedges, not index-like diversification.

4) Risk & Review

  • Macro, sector, idiosyncratic scenario analysis.
  • Pre‑/post‑mortems around earnings and global macro events.
  • Disciplined exits upon trade thesis falsification.

Trade Thesis One

Post-Earnings Price Discovery

Markets often misprice the time path after earnings. We position for the path, not just the point. And, we allocate risk according to modeled certainty.

Trade Thesis Two

Market Psychology of Fundamentals

Markets often behave in strange ways when viewed through an academic lens. We position based on valuation at targeted time horizons, while modeling how markets will react across all time horizons.

Who We Are

Brett McKinney, CPA — Founder & Portfolio Manager

Brett pairs an accounting/finance background and private equity industry experience with hands‑on ML research focused on post‑earnings dynamics, relative return modeling, and options‑based risk shaping.

“Process is the product. If we keep the process in focus, the P&L takes care of itself over time. This is how we achieve inevitability.”

Scottsdale / Phoenix, Arizona

Principles

Truth over theatrics

Rigor beats narrative; adapt fast when wrong.

Risk‑first design

Survivability before conviction.

Alignment

We win only when our investors win.

Continuous improvement

Small daily advantages compound quickly.

Contact

Email: info@singularityarc.com

Location: Scottsdale / Phoenix, Arizona