Singularity Arc Capital

Market Data Science

We research and design concentrated, research-driven portfolio frameworks by modeling global macroeconomic regimes and analyzing trade thesis considerations, such as how price discovery unfolds through market and global events.

Macroeconomic Conviction Market-Driving Fundamentals Behavioral Dynamics Post‑Event Dynamics Public Equities Options & Asymmetry

Our Mission

Build the capability to compound capital responsibly by turning high-quality information into decisive action. We aim to be the rare manager that is both deeply fundamental and relentlessly data-native.

What We're Researching

  • Machine learning models integrating fundamentals, earnings quality, capital allocation, and competitive dynamics with systematic signals such as post-earnings drift, relative strength, and macro regime shifts.
  • Public equities, enhanced with options for both risk shaping and asymmetric opportunity.
  • Disciplined use of leverage in risk-managed trades to capture market mispricings with defined time horizons.
  • Event‑aware frameworks that explicitly model earnings cycles, macro regime shifts, and fluid market dynamics such as seasonality.

Our Edge

Cross‑Sectional Discipline

We apply consistent, comparative analysis across companies, emphasizing durable fundamentals, resilient capital structures, and systematic stress-testing against a broad panel of quantitative indicators.

Psychology Awareness

Markets are a mirror of human nature. Our edge is seeing what others look past -the truths within the noise of market data- and acting with clarity.

Leverage & Time Awareness

We aim to exploit asymmetry through disciplined use of leverage and a constant awareness of time horizons. Every position we design will be framed with explicit risk, defined thesis half-lives, and structured exit criteria—turning time itself into a tradable dimension of edge.

Investment Approach

1) Idea Sourcing

  • Rigorous and grounded macroeconomic analysis.
  • Awareness the market must agree for us to be right.
  • Integrated data pipelines for price dynamics, fundamentals, options, transcripts, sentiment.

2) Modeling & Validation

  • Relentless focus on the fundamentals and dynamics that truly drive markets.
  • Aligned with macroeconomic theses and calibrated to time horizon.
  • Respecting the market in the short run, validating conviction in the long run.

3) Portfolio Construction

  • Sizing from expected return and error bars
  • Concentrated equity positions with targeted hedges, not index-like diversification.

4) Risk & Review

  • Macro, sector, idiosyncratic scenario analysis.
  • Pre/post‑mortems around earnings and global macro events.
  • Disciplined exits upon trade thesis falsification.


Trading Ethos

Macroeconomic Liquidity Regimes

Modern financial markets are ultimately governed by liquidity: where it flows, how quickly it expands or contracts, and which participants are forced to respond when. Most investors underestimate how dominant this dynamic truly is.

Our approach begins with identifying and positioning around global liquidity regimes. We build frameworks for asymmetric, often leveraged exposures aligned with liquidity conditions, while maintaining a deep awareness of sentiment driven counter-moves and short horizon market psychology. This combination allows us to express high conviction macro theses without losing sight of near-term volatility.

Trade Thesis One

Post-Event Price Discovery

Markets often misprice the time path after data release events, such as earnings or economic data. Our frameworks position for the path, not just the point. And, we allocate risk according to modeled certainty.

Trade Thesis Two

Market Psychology of Fundamentals

Markets often behave in strange ways when viewed through an academic lens. Our frameworks position based on valuation at targeted time horizons, while modeling how markets will react across all time horizons.

Who We Are

Brett McKinney, CPA — Founder & Future Portfolio Manager

Brett pairs an accounting/finance background and private equity industry experience with hands‑on ML research focused on post‑earnings dynamics, relative return modeling, and options‑based risk shaping.

“Process is the product. If we keep the process in focus, the P&L will take care of itself over time. This is how we achieve inevitability.”

Phoenix, Arizona

Contact

Email: info@singularityarc.com

Location: Phoenix, Arizona